Ruto Leads as Opposition Remains Fragmented, TIFA Poll Shows
By Samson Kurgat – Nairobi, Kenya
President William Ruto remains the frontrunner in the race for the 2027 General Election, although a new Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA) survey suggests the contest is becoming more competitive. Support for both the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) has declined, while opposition support remains split among several contenders.
The survey also shows that nearly one-third of Kenyans have not aligned themselves with any political party, leaving the political landscape fluid ahead of the elections.
The nationally representative survey was conducted between June 13 and 22, 2026, and involved 2,048 respondents across all 47 counties. It found that ODM remains the country’s most popular political party with 20 percent support, followed by UDA at 17 percent. The Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) has emerged as a notable new player with 12 percent support.
Another 28 percent of respondents said they do not currently support any political party, highlighting growing voter indecision.
In the presidential race, President Ruto leads with 24 percent support. Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna follows with 15 percent, former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i has 14 percent, while Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka stands at 13 percent. Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has the backing of seven percent of respondents, while 20 percent remain undecided.
According to TIFA, Ruto currently enjoys the highest level of support, but the opposition remains divided, with no single challenger commanding enough nationwide backing to emerge as a clear alternative.
The survey also found mixed views on the Broad-Based Government (BBG) arrangement between President Ruto and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga. A majority of respondents, 52 percent, said they oppose the arrangement, while 30 percent support it. Another 15 percent said they have no opinion.
Within ODM, support continues to shift toward the “Linda Mwananchi” faction. The survey found that 74 percent of ODM supporters back the faction over the BBG-aligned “Linda Ground” group.
Among respondents who want President Ruto defeated in 2027, nearly two-thirds believe the opposition’s best chance lies in fielding a single presidential candidate instead of several aspirants competing against one another.
Edwin Sifuna, Fred Matiang’i and Kalonzo Musyoka are seen as the opposition figures with the strongest potential to challenge the incumbent, although none holds a decisive lead over the others.
TIFA concludes that while President Ruto currently leads the race, the outcome of the 2027 General Election will largely depend on whether the opposition can unite behind one candidate and how political alliances evolve in the run-up to the polls.
