TIFA Poll Shows Shifting Political Alliances Ahead of 2027 Race
By Samson Kurgat – Nairobi, Kenya
A new survey by TIFA Research has revealed growing uncertainty in Kenya’s political landscape ahead of the 2027 General Election, with support for both major parties, ODM and UDA, declining as new political formations gain traction. The poll, conducted between May 2 and 11 among 2,013 respondents across all 47 counties, shows ODM leading party support at 18 percent, closely followed by UDA at 17 percent and DCP at 16 percent—marking a sharp rise for the latter from just six percent in November last year.
The survey further indicates that President William Ruto remains the leading presidential contender for 2027 with 24 percent support, ahead of Kalonzo Musyoka at 19 percent and Fred Matiang’i at 14 percent. Edwin Sifuna emerged as a significant new entrant in the race with 10 percent support, while former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua polled nine percent. However, TIFA notes that the opposition vote remains fragmented, potentially strengthening Ruto’s re-election prospects.
Within ODM, the poll exposes deepening divisions over the Broad-Based Government arrangement between Ruto and the late Raila Odinga. Nearly three-quarters of ODM supporters backed the “Linda Mwananchi” faction associated with Sifuna, while only 24 percent supported the “Linda Ground” camp led by Oburu Odinga. At the same time, 56 percent of Kenyans said they oppose the Broad-Based Government, compared to 30 percent who support it.
The poll also suggests that Kenyans remain skeptical about political parties and opposition unity ahead of the elections. Nearly half of the respondents said no political party genuinely represents ordinary citizens, while only about one-third believe the country currently has a strong opposition. Among possible opposition pairings, a Kalonzo-Matiang’i ticket attracted the highest support among opposition supporters at 31 percent, narrowly edging out a Kalonzo-Sifuna combination at 28 percent.
The evolving dynamics are likely to redefine existing alliances, with loyalty expected to be tested both within government and opposition ranks. As campaigns gradually gather momentum, the electorate will closely watch how leaders navigate the shifting political environment ahead of the crucial 2027 polls.
