TIFA POLL: Ruto And Sifuna Locked In Dead Heat For 2027 Presidency As UDA Regains Top Spot
By Samson Kurgat | NAIROBI,
With less than a year to the August 2027 General Election, Kenya’s political landscape is undergoing a dramatic realignment. President William Ruto and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna have emerged as deadlocked frontrunners in the race for State House, each commanding 31 per cent support, according to the latest national opinion poll by TIFA Research.
Released on Thursday, November 12, 2026, the findings underscore a sharp shift in voter sentiment. Sifuna’s rapid ascent has largely come at the expense of rival opposition figures, while President Ruto has consolidated his base to reclaim top standing.
At the party level, the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) has bounced back to reclaim its position as Kenya’s most popular political outfit with 25 per cent support, up from 17 per cent in June. The newly established Linda Mwananchi Movement, closely associated with Sifuna, has surged into second place at 17 per cent, overtaking the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), which suffered a steep drop from 20 per cent to 10 per cent over the same period. The Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) trails at 9 per cent, while a substantial 28 per cent of respondents remain unaffiliated with any political party.
Despite Sifuna’s momentum, internal friction continues to test opposition cohesion ahead of 2027. While 57 per cent of opposition supporters believe their leaders are very likely to rally behind a single platform, 43 per cent point to former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua as the primary source of division within their ranks. Another 15 per cent blame President Ruto and the UDA administration for sowing discord. On the question of timing, 45 per cent of opposition backers want a joint presidential flagbearer and running mate unveiled between January and March 2027, while 35 per cent favour an announcement before the end of this year.
In the Kenya Kwanza camp, Deputy President Kithure Kindiki remains the overwhelming favourite to stay on the ticket should President Ruto seek re-election. Kindiki garnered the backing of 55 per cent of Ruto’s supporters, comfortably ahead of Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga at 12 per cent and Mombasa Governor Hassan Joho at 9 per cent. Meanwhile, the Broad-Based Government arrangement continues to face public pushback, with 43 per cent of Kenyans opposing the pact compared to 32 per cent in favour, and 25 per cent undecided or unaware of it.
Conducted between October 26 and November 5, 2026, through face-to-face household interviews with 2,036 randomly selected adults across all 47 counties—and carrying a margin of error of plus or minus 2.16 per cent—the survey paints a picture of a fiercely contested race heading into 2027. With nearly a third of voters still unaligned with any party and opposition unity hanging in the balance, the coming months of coalition-building will prove decisive in breaking the deadlock at the top.
