1.5 million people at risk as El Niño approaches

 

Up to 1.5 million people in 46 counties could be affected by heavy rains expected from October, as authorities step up preparations for an El Niño season.

 

The warning comes as the Kenya Meteorological Department forecasts rain and cooler conditions in several parts of the country over the next five days, including Nairobi, the central highlands, the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria basin and parts of the coast.

 

The five-day forecast covers September 18 to 22, with rainfall varying across the regions.

 

The government expects the October-November-December rainfall season to begin in the second or third week of October and continue into early 2027.

 

Government Spokesperson Charles Owino said the country faced a 90% probability of above-average rainfall during the season.

 

“There is no need for panic, but government institutions, counties and members of the public must take precautionary measures ahead of the expected heavy rains from October through early 2027,” Owino said.

 

Authorities are mapping areas vulnerable to flooding, identifying evacuation grounds and preparing response teams and emergency supplies. Residents in riparian and other high-risk areas have been urged to move to safer ground before flooding occurs.

 

Col (Rtd) David Samoei, director of the National Disaster Operations Centre, said preparations were being made before the rains arrive.

 

“The Government is taking the forecast seriously and has adopted a proactive, coordinated and anticipatory approach to preparedness,” Samoei said.

 

The preparations include clearing drainage systems, checking vulnerable infrastructure, strengthening early-warning messages through local administration and pre-positioning relief supplies and emergency teams.

 

The Ministry of Health is also preparing for health problems that can follow heavy rain and flooding, including contaminated water and poor sanitation.

 

The ministry has advised households to use safe toilets, dispose of children’s faeces properly, report sewage leaks and keep children away from floodwater.

 

It has also urged people to cook food thoroughly, eat it while hot and keep it covered to prevent contamination.

 

The advice comes as the ministry asks counties to strengthen disease surveillance and maintain essential health services during the rainy season.

 

For farmers, the timing of the rains could be particularly important in areas where harvesting is under way. Wet weather can make it harder to dry maize properly, increasing the risk of mould and aflatoxin contamination if grain is stored before it is sufficiently dry.

 

The immediate forecast covers the next five days, but the larger preparedness effort is aimed at the October-to-December season, when heavy rainfall could affect homes, roads, farms and health services across much of the country.