Court battle over rice imports exposes drought-driven food system strains
By Chemtai Kirui
Nairobi, Jan. 7 — A legal battle over rice imports has become a flashpoint for broader concerns about drought, food prices and supply gaps, as the government warns that prolonged dry conditions are pushing the food system toward a new pressure point.
The case stems from a government decision last year to allow duty-free imports of up to 500,000 tonnes of rice, after officials warned that drought and falling domestic production had widened the gap between supply and demand.
The move was challenged by local traders and producers, who argue the import window was introduced without sufficient public consultation and would undercut domestic farmers. The government says the measure is temporary and necessary to prevent shortages and sharp price increases.
Agriculture Cabinet Secretary Mutahi Kagwe said erratic rainfall and reduced water availability in key rice-producing regions have sharply reduced domestic output, increasing reliance on imports to meet demand.
Official data submitted to the High Court shows local production supplies less than 20% of national rice consumption, leaving a structural deficit that authorities say cannot be met through domestic output alone.
Government projections indicate the shortfall could exceed 380,000 metric tonnes by early 2026.
Between January and June, national rice demand is estimated at about 750,000 tonnes, while projected domestic production for the same period stands at roughly 110,000 tonnes, according to figures presented by the government in court filings.
Rice has become an increasingly important staple, particularly among urban households and in arid and semi-arid lands (ASAL), where climate stress has narrowed food options and increased dependence on purchased food, analysts say.
Government contingency planning documents submitted to the High Court show that drought-related production losses have exposed long-standing gaps between demand and local supply.
Officials told the court that domestic output is expected to remain subdued in the first half of the year, a deficit that existing stocks cannot bridge.
At the center of the dispute is a gazetted policy authorizing duty-free imports of up to 500,000 tonnes of grade-one rice, introduced in July 2025 to stabilize supply and contain prices.
Petitioners have asked the High Court to suspend the import window, arguing it undermines local producers.
Government lawyers counter that blocking imports would worsen shortages and trigger sharp price increases.
“The lapse of the Gazette Notice has already led to price volatility in non-basmati long-grain rice,” the state told the court, adding that higher prices would disproportionately affect low-income households, particularly in informal settlements and drought-affected counties where food accounts for the largest share of household spending.
Retail prices of grade-one rice have risen in recent months, with government filings showing prices climbing to between KSh 190 and KSh 220 per kilogram, compared with lower levels during previous duty-free import periods.
Economists warn that sustained rice price increases could ripple across the food system. If rice becomes unaffordable, households may shift consumption to maize, placing upward pressure on maize prices and potentially fueling broader food inflation.
Production challenges extend beyond rainfall. Irrigation schemes such as Mwea, Ahero and Bunyala have experienced reduced water flows, raising production costs and constraining output, while rain-fed areas have suffered delayed or failed planting seasons, according to submissions made to the court.
Kagwe warned that without timely interventions, acute food insecurity in ASAL regions could escalate. Government projections presented to the court show about 1.8 million people were experiencing high levels of food stress by late 2025, with the figure potentially rising to 3.5 million by early 2026 if drought conditions persist and food prices continue to rise.
The High Court is expected to rule on the rice import case on Jan. 29, 2026.
